Just because India has outperformed the US markets in a short recent period, it does not mean that this is based on fundamental reasons that are here to stay, points out Debashis Basu.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani on Thursday unveiled the next phase of growth at Reliance Industries Ltd, with retail and telecom worth over $100 billion each, doubling revenues and pre-tax profit in 3-4 years, new energy business becoming profitable by 2031, and core oil and chemical business continuing to be the robust growth engine. The sprawling conglomerate with interests in refining, oil and gas, petrochemicals, telecom, retail, and media is on track to more than double in size before the end of the decade, Ambani, chairman and managing director of Reliance, told company shareholders.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
Households may be feeling the pinch of higher inflation but corporate India is enjoying record high margins and profits. The combined quarterly net profit of listed companies scaled a new high in the April-June 2023 quarter owing to a sharp rise in operating and net profit. The expansion in margins more than compensated for the slowdown in revenue growth, which slipped into single digits in Q1FY24 after a gap of nine quarters.
'The reason being we cannot let premiums go beyond a certain point.'
Changes in global oil and gas rates matter more to India's economy than other major economies because the country imports around 87 per cent of its oil, half of its gas in the form of LNG, and over 60 per cent of its LPG.
The windfall taxes on domestic crude oil production and fuel exports will generate close to $12 billion (Rs 94,800 crore) for the government in the remainder of the current fiscal while trimming profits of firms such as Reliance Industries Ltd and ONGC, Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday. On July 1, the government imposed windfall gain taxes on the export of petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), and on the domestic production of crude oil. It has also mandated exporters to meet the requirements of the domestic market first.
Nestle, Titan, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, ITC, JSW Steel and State Bank of India were the other laggards. Among the gainers, Tata Motors jumped nearly 6 per cent. Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharma, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance and Power Grid also ended in the positive territory.
Vedanta group chairman, Anil Agarwal, 69, is well known for his business journey from a scrap dealer from Bihar to a London-based globe-girdling metal and oil and gas conglomerate with revenues of $19 billion. Now his abilities to keep his group from over-leveraging itself will be put to the test. Over the years, Agarwal, now based in London, set up the conglomerate via acquiring iron ore producer Sesa Goa, Cairn's oil producing assets in India, and Electrosteel Steel.
Apart from the emotional value attached to buying gold, the yellow metal offers protection against inflation, interest rate spikes, currency and geopolitical risks, says Anamika Pareek.
After four years of high double-digit growth in profits, corporate earnings of Indian companies hit a speed bump in the April-June quarter of 2024 (Q1FY25), leading to the risk of a downward revision in India Inc profit estimates for FY25 and volatility in the equity market. Earnings growth slowed despite companies in most non-financial sectors reporting higher operating margins from lower commodity prices and a decline in interest costs.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys tanked over 8 per cent after the company reported a lower-than-expected 11 per cent rise in net profit for the June quarter and delivered a shocker as it slashed its FY24 growth outlook to 1-3.5 per cent on delayed decision-making by clients amid global macro uncertainties. Hindustan Unilever, HCL Technologies, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra were the other major laggards. On the other hand, Larsen & Toubro rose the most by 3.88 per cent after it bagged an order of worth over Rs 7,000 crore from the bullet train project.
Declining crude price translates into lower under-recoveries for OMCs
As oil marketing companies (OMCs) stare at huge under-recoveries, India is facing fuel shortage across the country with states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka Uttarakhand, Gujarat and Haryana being the worst hit. The under-recoveries suffered by OMCs are around Rs 20-25 a litre for diesel and Rs 14-18 a litre for petrol, said sources. Government and state-run companies denied reports of any crisis or supply-side issues on the availability of fuel.
The cumulative increase since the oil companies started the cycle on June 7 now totals to Rs 9.17 for petrol and Rs 11.14 for diesel.
The state-run oil company's Research and Development Centre singed an agreement with the National Centre for Catalysis Research of IIT Madras for the joint program on Monday.
The public sector oil refining and marketing companies Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation are back on the radar of investors as their profit levels reach record highs.
Indian officials will focus on expanding the country's footprint in oil-rich Siberia when they meet their Russian counterparts at the four-day 7th Eastern Economic Forum beginning Monday in Vladivostok. The two sides will discuss the possibility of joint oil exploration in the area and cooperation in running offshore oil and gas fields Western companies are in the process of exiting, officials said in New Delhi. Pavan Kapoor, India's ambassador to Russia, will lead the official-level talks at the summit scheduled September 5-8.
From its recent lows, the stock of consumer major Marico is up 7 per cent on the back of a better-than-expected June quarter performance and robust outlook. In a pre-quarter update, the management indicated that domestic volume growth should witness an improvement in FY25, while other segments (growth portfolio, international business) too would see traction going ahead. The near-term trigger is strong sales and operating performance for Q1FY25.
If electric cars with a real range of more than 400 km are launched, the anxiety regarding the charging points will come down, and more people will buy EVs.
In Maharashtra, the oil industry had tenancy protection till 1999.
Among the Sensex firms, HCL Technologies fell the most by 2.4 per cent. IndusInd Bank (2.35 per cent), Infosys (2.28 per cent), Wipro (1.8 per cent), NTPC (1.71 per cent), Asian Paints (1.7 per cent), Tata Consultancy Services (1.36 per cent),Tech Mahindra (1.03 per cent) and SBI (1 per cent) were among the major laggards.
In nine hikes, petrol price has gone up by Rs 5 per litre and diesel by Rs 4.87 a litre.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was strong
'If you compare the data from 2017 and 2023 of the US imports from the world and China, you will see that the US was a complete loser in the trade war, and China was a complete gainer.'
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
Stock markets would be largely driven by macroeconomic data, auto sales numbers, FII inflows and global trends this week, analysts said. The US debt ceiling negotiations and institutional flows will also be watched by investors. "This week, market participants will closely monitor institutional flows, as there is a historical observation that when both FIIs and DIIs become net buyers simultaneously, there is a likelihood of some profit-booking in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
'Investors should look to incrementally allocate towards equity from a medium-to-long term horizon.'
IOC has asked consumers to book LPG refill through IVRS or SMSes so that refills reach genuine users.
Petrol price on Saturday breached the Rs 83 per litre-mark in Delhi for the first time in more than two years after a rally in international oil prices forced a 13th increase in rates in the last fortnight. Petrol price on Saturday was raised by 27 paise per litre and diesel by 25 paise, according to a price notification of oil marketing companies. Petrol price in Delhi rose to Rs 83.13 per litre from Rs 82.86. Diesel rates went up from Rs 73.07 to Rs 73.32 per litre.
FII stance, progress of monsoon, crude oil and rupee movement are likely to dictate the trend.
Petrol price in Delhi was hiked to Rs 77.28 per litre from Rs 76.73, while diesel rates were increased to Rs 75.79 a litre from Rs 75.19, according to a price notification from State oil marketing companies. Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending on the incidence of local sales tax or VAT.
BSE PSU index rallies 10% in one month; nearly a third of the stocks on the index has gained 20% over the period
The wider NSE Nifty touched a low of 10,652.40 before finishing at 10,671.40, showing a loss of 97.75 points, or 0.91 per cent.
Cooking gas (LPG) dealers on Monday threatened to go on an indefinite strike from January 19 unless oil companies stop appointing new distributors.
'Forget your loss or profit in your portfolio.' 'Look at how much cash you have in hand.' 'If you don't have cash in hand, liquidate at least partially; get into about 20 per cent in cash.'
From the Sensex basket, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank and JSW Steel were the major gainers. Wipro, Nestle, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards.
In all, petrol price has gone up by Rs 1.74 per litre and diesel by Rs 1.78 a litre in three days.
The Union oil ministry is considering a proposal to adopt differential pricing for diesel, under which industrial users like power utilities, will be charged market prices and retail consumers continue to be subsidised.
